The global depletion of natural resources – due to an exponential demographic growth in human population – is a fact.
The tendency toward “migrating” to locations perceived as presenting lucrative opportunity has already been set off; it is hardly about to abate soon.
Meanwhile, rising oceans encroaching upon long established sea-front towns & cities will add to the desperation to migrate.
All this is projected to reach disaster proportions within a few short years; certainly within the next 7 years.
In sum, upwards of 250,000,000 to 300,000,000 people are expected to be displaced due to climate change alone.
The impact upon the civility of societies will be taxing. How to access, interpret and contextualize information so as to protect self and family will be a demanding exercise. It stands to challenge us throughout our lives.
Collectively, we face fast depleting natural resources; this is coupled with swelling sea-levels. At the same time, there are several other issues to consider: for e.g., runaway mountain torrents; rapidly receding (towards north-pole) permafrost lines; increasingly violent hurricane magnitudes; innumerable land, air, & water species’ extinction.
All of the above impact a most primary need: natural reserves of water. All water basins across the world are presently subject to two inter-related realities. Natural reserves of water, which were long frozen on highlands, are melting all too fast; first they turn into torrents, overwhelming all that we may consider stable within our environments. Next, they end up fattening the salt waters of the world. This process decimates the ecosystems around all rivers. Moreover, forests too dry up, burn and turn into desert.
The crisis that is thus in the making will be intense upon all coastal settlements; no less in Africa. It will impact us all economically. So, the questions for all to consider are, Will we be among those left destitute? Or will be among those willing and able to help?
The young, the old and the economically challenged will be all too many. And it is the youth and young adults of today who, within seven years or less, will be the only ones capable of ensuring two matters that are vital to all society: emotional safety and psychological security.
For ensuring emotional safety, make sure you are loyal to family, extended family and friends. Never betray your trusts.
For psychological security bear in mind your allegiance to community, society and continent. Bring all your intelligence and goodwill to safeguard and practice the ethics that are common to all humanity.
The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future, by Laurence C. Smith, [Penguin Group, New York, USA; 2010. pp 322] has, as its primary motif, what it calls a thought experiment regarding future outlooks for planet earth. Viewed primarily through the lens of Geography, the study is founded upon a systematic survey of both the earth’s present-day, physical and atmospheric features, as well as how the trajectory of collective human engagement with the planet’s resources both affects and is in turn affected by the physical environment.
Written for a non-specialist but intellectually sophisticated audience, Professor L C Smith`s prolific writing portrays four emergent trends:
- a burgeoning global population demographic that already
- taxes proven reserves of natural resource; coupled with
- globalization – the stiffly competing availability of processed products and skilled labour from across the globe, making us economically, socially and technologically codependent, and
- an irreversible climate change pattern that over the next 25 – 30 years is set to significantly impact the availability of vital resources, namely fresh water & fossil fuels
Intertwining in between the above four is technological innovation; newer high-tech developments will powerfully influence the above four trends, either as enablers or as brakes. Also, to the amply substantiated assumptions stated above, Smith applies a laissez faire rule in that the models from which he builds his premises of argument assume no surprise elements: no low-probability high-impact scenarios entertained; no miraculous type solutions assumed; no world war iii; no health epidemic; no meteor impact, etc., even though any or all of these could well occur.
Highly noteworthy is the approach. The blend in between personal narrative and objective expository is admirably seamless. The end notes and citations are detailed, relevant and thorough. Viewing world maps from Russian, Scandinavian and North American sides of the True north is remarkably refreshing.
Smith argues, furthermore, lifestyles lived today are at best skewed in terms of resource sharing. Worse still, the resource base they draw from is fast depleting. Ultimately, what’s of grave concern is that entire species’ destinies are at stake; including our own. In the new world order, previous security assumptions will fade fast.
The outlook though while not optimistic need not be bleak. The study suggests there are intelligent ways of dealing with imminent issues. Where previously there may have been divides, future generations’ recourse may well lie in adaptation; by way of creative, united fronts.
The intellectual trek that the book offers, therefore, draws from physical and spatial Geography, but also branches into implications regarding economic integration; international law; political viability, etc. The professed purpose of the author’s thesis is to “…pull together trends and evidence into a bigger picture.” Ostensibly, it is to inform concerned minds and responsible governments. It is left up to individuals to exercise knowledge gained into their own spheres of influence. At conclusion, what defines humanity rises to the surface: in a world far from perfect, how would informed minds envision the most optimal living environment?
By Alnoor B. Kassam BA MA PGCEd
