What happens after JK?

Despite early rumblings and internal strife within Tanzania’s incumbent party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) earlier this year, it is pretty clear that President Jakaya Kikwete is assured a second five year term as President of Tanzania. Like many second or third term presidencies in Africa (of course some presidencies just have unlimited terms) there is going to be a great sense of continuation. For Tanzania’s foreign policy, continuation of Kikwete’s government will mean more exposure to the international community, more donors and more good standings amongst various institutions. Domestically is where continuation may be looked at disapprovingly as the President has been criticized for being abroad more than he’s been at home, not significantly dealing with corruption and a list of economic challenges. Final presidential terms for most Presidents usually consist of a good restoration of legacy. People in power want to be remembered for the good not the bad and this drive can sometimes lead to lasting peace and sustainable development, putting country first (see President Mwai Kibaki).

Courtesy of UNESCO
President Jakaya Kikwete (Courtesy UNESCO)

President Kikwete’s second term will probably see him pushing for a robust domestic plan to benefit Tanzanians. Tackling corruption will be the most visible because the President can have public trials with high profile perpetrators. We might even see a push for infrastructure development (roads? It cant be!). Lets just hope those roads don’t run through the Serengeti because that will not be a good legacy: to single handedly destroy the ecosystem of the largest national park on the continent will not sit well with donors. What about the East African Community (EAC)? Let’s watch that spot for now but any type of EAC integration that could hinder Tanzania’s economic growth will not be implemented…country first.

President Kikwete, with no re-election campaign to worry about, has a great opportunity to push forward with progressive and beneficial policies that will put Tanzania on a positive economic, social and political path. In all honesty my worry is the post-Kikwete Tanzania. What happens after 2015? Who takes over and continues to push Tanzania forward rather than backward? That’s a political risk I’m worried about and we should keep that in mind as we move forward. More importantly are the current divisions that exist within CCM a taste of things to come? Will CCM be as influential and powerful by the time 2015 comes around or will there be an exodus of former party members joining forces with new blood?

Perhaps the only way to salvage CCM is to incorporate new blood into the party and push the idea of taking ownership among the youth.

Previous ArticleNext Article
Ahmed is currently finishing up his Master of International Affairs at Columbia University focussing on international security policy and Africa. Ahmed’s interest and focus is primarily on politics and the intersection between security and development in Africa. Prior to Columbia, Ahmed finished his undergraduate degree in 2008 at Lehigh University with a BA in International Relations and Africana Studies. Ahmed was born in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania but spent most of his life in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia where he was exposed to the potential as well as the shortcomings of politics and development in Africa. Currently Ahmed is waiting to pursue a career in political risk consulting. Ahmed writes for Vijana FM with a focus on politics in both Tanzania and Africa.

This post has 16 Comments

16
  1. So what! who are you declaring the results of general election even before 31.10.10. Ahmed you must be nut! you mind is as corrupt as WAFISADI.

  2. “Kontrovesi”!!

    1. Kibaki IS FORCED to do what he is doing at the moment.

    2. Don’t get me started on that Serengeti issue…

    For now I will sit back and watch. Hopefully I will come up with more constructive comments later (maybe after the elections).

  3. @anon Please understand that our discussions here on Vijana FM try and provoke debate. This article was not posted to create any strife with readers, but to encourage a discourse on the Tanzanian presidency. Therefore, our intention is not to provoke anger and name-calling, but collaborative critical analysis.

  4. Interesting.No matter how much I wish Ahmed was wrong on this, its just so unfortunate that from the looks of things, “Dr.” Kikwete is going to get re-elected.

    If you ask me, I am not against Kikwete as a human being, he seems like a very wonderful person, but I am sure we could have done better in 2005.

    Here is my issue, and where I differ a little bit with some of the views in this article. Kikwete wont deal with corruption or the corrupt politicians (Kikwete please surprise me), because we just recently saw how he endorsed the parliamentary campaigns of few controversial politicians.

    Lowassa is directly linked with the Richmond scandal. Chenge is under investigation for several scandals and cases. Rostam Aziz has also been implicated in some scandals. This tells me one thing, he doesn’t care, coz he has nothing to lose, after all this is his last term. Like what Bush told the Katrina victims, its deuces Tanzanians. Anyways, they’re all innocent till proven guilty right?, goodluck with that everyone.

    But, I do agree with Ahmed 100% on the issue of CCM needing some new blood running the show, if they want to continue being relevant in the political arena.

    CCM has good policies, I have no doubt on that, but the people who are responsible of implementing them are the ones that their expiration dates are past due, now they’re just poisoning the nation. This is why I would like to see an upset and have an opposition win the general election, but I have my personal doubts of seeing that happening.

    Chadema’s victory, for example, will knock CCM back to its senses. I believe CCM will then be forced to rebuild from its essence, with a conscious mind of its philosophies and wisdom it was founded upon. But I think although Chadema may not win, they have played a very critical role in getting CCM to start thinking, instead of sleeping. This is because, for the first time the political consciousness of the people is all time high.

    Now I am not suggesting Chadema is responsible for all of this, not at all, bcoz CCM themselves have everything to do with it, due to their incompetent leaders/ leadership. People today are simply tired, tired, tired of being cheated, but unfortunately poverty does few things to people, and i’ll only discuss two.

    First, poverty makes people become tired and pissed off of their circumstances (getting their adrenaline pumping), to the point they will want to do something about their reality. This is when you see people getting involved, becoming political conscious (like we’re seeing today). Now whether your vote will count or not, thats another issue, but at least the power of ones vote is finally realized.

    Secondly, poverty gives corrupt leaders a platform and victory very easily. This is because, deceiving poor people is not very difficult with money and other gifts. Now I am not saying that this is always the case, but if you have been poor all of your life, you have lost all your hope, so thinking about tomorrow becomes a luxury rather than a necessity.

    A poor, hopeless/ helpless person lives for today, bcoz tomorrow is rich mans concern.

  5. While you guys are at it, I would like to say the following: normally, young folks don’t believe in the system — as in, most of the time in most African elections, the outcome is “already known”, therefore they tend to have this attitude that their votes don’t count anyways.

    Most of you will agree with me that this applies to most Tanzania youths, too. Thus, although I am already looking forward to the 2015 election — like Ahmed — I would like to see all the youths queuing up in poll stations to cast their votes (me expecting a significant number of upsets this time around)!

    It’s YOUR country. Vote like you OWN it!!

  6. I don’t need to go post 2015 to have my uncertainties. Yes Kikwete’s presidency is certain what is not certain is how arrogant he is?

    Will he at least try to improve the economy or will he completely ignore the opposition pleas and call them rants and chants?

    Will the MPs from the opposition make a difference or are they the same as the incumbents?

  7. I fail to see any seriousness in the assertion that Kikwete will launch any real tackle against corruption, not after massively campaigning for Chenge and Mramba, to pick two vivid anecdotes.

    It is possible Kikwete will concentrate on the infrastructure and strengthening the quality of education after his initial push for enrollment.

    On the Serengeti road, I see the author adopting the right stance for the wrong, or at least questionable, reason. If Tanzanians are to oppose the mutilation of the Serengeti, this opposition should be borne of a genuine care for the environment, not a prostitution bent on pleasing donors. I understand our budget is heavily donor dependent, but that should not mean that Tanzanians cannot decide their fate without agonizing over what the donor community will think. I am against the Serengeti road for environmental and unavoidably economic reasons (apart from aid, primarily trade)

    Some feel that without worries of a re-election Kikwete will have a freer hand to implement his agenda, experience tells some of us that he will slacken his pace even more.

  8. @ anon, I’ve never been called corrupt before but I understand your frustrations. I am only going on the political history, no President in the past has ever served one term, its always been a ten year term. I think there is a problem with assuming an outcome before it is even made, I can’t tell the future but I believe me saying this can attest to what Steven is saying and hinting to. BECAUSE we can already assume JK will win we have to take ownership and vote and participate in the electoral process to shake up the system even a bit. Opposition groups like CHADEMA should be even more motivated when most of the youth assume the outcome is already known and therefore will not vote. Its kind of like the Democrats and Republicans in the US, young democrats will not go out and vote because it is already known that the Republicans will take over the house and senate. “Why should I vote”

    @Steven, Kibaki may be forced to do what he has to do but do we care about motivation if the result is peace and or stability. Odinga was forced too no?

    @Bahati, some of my thoughts in this article are remnants of what i hope will happen. I hope that because JK will not worry about winning another election he will try to restore some kind of dignity and legacy so that we dont look at him by 2015 and wish we made other choices in 2005…Although he may not do anything and we will be back at square one. CHADEMA is a start, no party is perfect but I think they really have something going even if they serve as a facilitator to make CCM get back to its core values. They should be a playmaker by 2015.

    @everyone else, how do we move forward?

  9. Ahmed, you are on point with everything you are saying…. we all KNOW Kikwete will win, but we also know that post-2015 is very not only uncertain but critical. As someone who was just home in Tanzania earlier this month, I could see this level concern regarding “what happens after 2015” – – clearly CCM is losing its grip on the country in all aspects…and I have heard so many people say that if we had better non-CCM options, or “opposition” we would see a great deal of support going to them. But is the opposition better than CCM or should we jus suck it up and stick with what we know, i.e. CCM?

    A lot of young people are very engaged in this presidential election and if they keep this momentum going, 2015 will be a very critical year for Tanzania, a big turning point… I dont think CCM will stay past 2015. I think as Tanzanians, we are demanding more … slowly, we are waking up and realizing that we deserve better…

    But then again, all this is just speculation…but the atmosphere at home is something that is very well reflected in this piece.

    We are not predicting the outcome of the elections per say, but more the reality of what will happen! We only have a little over a week left anyway! Wohoo! Can’t wait 😀

  10. Msangi, naona umekuwa nguli VFM. Mzee kila ukimwaga pointi lazima niambulie misamiati/misemo mipya miwili mitatu!

    Ahmed, I understand what you are saying mzee, but I don’t want Tanzania to go through the same path, i.e. experience some turmoil and then realize, ‘Ooh, maybe we need to do something about our [outdated] constitution!’ I was thinking of mentioning Zanzibar as a good example to follow, but, again, their ride wasn’t smooth either.

    Personally, I – just from top of my head – would like to see the following changes, particularly in the constitution (there are a lot of dubious things in here):

    1. It’s inevitable that the opposition camp will continue to grow significantly over the coming years*, so let’s get prepared: Serikali ya Mseto. But, do you think the CCM govt. is concerned about it?

    2. We have to throw in some stuff in there which will hold our leaders accountable — both to the President and Wananchi. For instance, let’s say any qualified persons in the country can apply for minister(s) posts. And can get fired when they mess up. I believe we have more than enough Tanzanians who can do more than a decent job, it’s only the dirty politics which discourages them…

    3. The Union issues have to be looked at; carefully. Only common sense is needed there.

    4. Tougher penalties for corrupts!

    5. Mgombea (wa Urais) binafsi.

    Etc.

    Do I think the CCM govt. will deliver this? I don’t think so.

    As someone mentioned already, our education system and policies need reforms big time! Quickly!

    *This might change after 31.10.2010.

  11. My hope is to have a huge turn-out in the elections, and thereafter have a fair vote-counting and reporting.

    Our dear CCM folks are filled with arrogance (i.e. refusal of debates, presenting to the public bizarre receipts for justifying the use of Government plane for campaign, having slogans like “Ushindi Lazima” ……) and that’s why I dislike any attempt to vote them in, let alone their serious lack of urgency and vision for the nation. (“Ofkoz, we will continue doing the same….” said JK, as a response to A. Sesay’s question in the recent WEF forum on what would Tanzania do differently to prevent mass shocks from the global financial crisis.) I am tempted to believe that since 2005 we have been seeing a mere copy-paste set of policies.

    Giving Kikwete an election win that he hasn’t achieved yet is unfair to the rural-masses fired up by this year’s election.

  12. The real Dr. has already surprised many of us so far by undoing – virtually exponentially if not almost overnight – the 2000-2005 monopoly of the ruling party in the presidential race since ‘we the people’ asked him to run for the post due to his political legitimacy countrywide; why can’t ‘we the citizens’ then just give him the benefit of the doubt for at least one more week – he may indeed shock many ‘forecasters’ – including REDET and SYNOVATE – on that grand October 31, 2010:

    http://udadisi.blogspot.com/2010/10/why-slaa-could-win-presidential.html

  13. @SN, thanks for the compliment, it’s not me, my keyboard is evolving with artificial intelligence.

    @ Chambi, I think the “real” Dr. has helped a lot, but the core undoing for the status quo came from CCM itself, particularly the honorary Dr. The link you gave us has a sober and frank outlook to the extent I felt that it was talking about me when it said ” people are deciding to vote for Slaa since they think most people will vote for the ruling party’s candidate anyway”. “Ushindi lazima” could certainly wield unintended consequences.

    If Slaa can’t win, I would love to see Kikwete’s wing severely clipped. Even Icarus had to deal with reality, what with Kikwete’s ignorant arrogance from “sihitaji kura za wafanyakazi wasiotaka kunipigia kura”, “wenye UKIMWI wanajitakia wenyewe kwa kiherehere” and a host of other hideously repugnant comments that reveal Kikwete for the nincompoop he is.

  14. I happen to think Kikwete is genuine about improving maendeleo ya WaTanzania, he has been letdown by some of his people and partly he got bogged down by political favors. Nadhani, pia tunasahau kwamba, Tanzania has a lot of technocrats in her goverment. Well educated chaps who continue to make dubious decisions, and that really comes down to moral core and kukosa maadili. So, we won’t necessarily need more technocrats, we just need folks with maadili tu run the show.

    In agreeing with the author, I think 2015 election is the most important one for this generations of Tanzanians. I’m almost sure that CCM will re-brand itself and appeal more to the youths. Maybe we can hope that CUF and Chadema can continue on the momentum to provide a much needed strong opposition.

    But maybe the most important thing that we need to pay attention in the next government, is who is JK grooming to take over. Because, most likely that would be our next president. Just like Benjamin groomed JK to take over. As much as we complain about Jakaya’s perceived incompetence, he still has a hand on the next and most important President in our generation. The choice of new CCM’s SG will also signal the direction of the party–will he go for a younger person, or stick with old guards (Kinana??).

    As of us, vijana–maybe we can pick our president early on, and vigorously grass root for him until 2015. That would be a way to influence our political landscape.

  15. For CHADEMA, I am terrified for their Chairman Freeman Mbowe to hold any post; he seems like a dodge character, CHADEMA needs more multicultural members, as well to appear as if it’s not a company but an opposition party for Tanzania.
    I seriously doubt if they have got enough competent leaders.
    I definitely wish for a coalition government
    .

  16. It was interesting to read your comments on Ahmed article. As Tanzanian we have a lot to do and learn and we need to question ourselves individually on our contribution to the failure of our politicians. Which role the policy makers are playing to create a room for fair play and transparency? What about the technocrats which values are they advocating for? And why do we wait for the elections to air our disappointment?

    One of the commentator stated that it will be better for the opposition to win the presidency, my question is the opposition prepared? Did he consider the future of East Africa Community? I think we need to carefully prioritise issues

    Personally I believe the best case scenario will be to achieve power sharing not like Zimbabwe and without bloodletting.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Send this to a friend